As Russians head to the polls, Vladimir Putin’s reelection seems assured, despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the challenges posed by his opponents.
Predictable Victory
Analysts anticipate Putin’s triumph, given his unparalleled authority and the lack of formidable contenders approved by the election commission.
Economic Landscape
Russia’s economy appears robust, with GDP growth reaching 3.6% in 2023 and projected growth of 2.6% this year. Despite inflation hovering around 7%, unemployment remains at a record low, and wages are soaring.
Voter Influence
The buoyant economy could sway voters, as reflected in Putin’s soaring approval rating of 85% in January, as reported by the Levada Centre.
Putin’s Ambitions
For Putin, mere victory is insufficient. He aims for an overwhelming mandate to reaffirm his dominance in Russian politics.
Emphasis on Turnout
Authorities prioritize voter turnout, even exerting pressure on state-linked employees to ensure high participation rates.
Facade of Democracy
Maintaining the illusion of a free and fair election is crucial for Putin to legitimize his leadership domestically and internationally.
Economic Influence on Voter Behavior
Russians often vote based on economic conditions, and the current prosperity favors Putin’s reelection bid.
Economic Stewardship
Elvira Nabiullina’s role as the governor of the Central Bank of Russia has been instrumental in sustaining the economy amidst the Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions.
War-Driven Economy
The war-induced economic changes, coupled with generous state spending, sustain Russia’s economy in the short term, despite concerns about long-term sustainability.
Putin’s Narrative
Putin is likely to leverage the election results to bolster his propaganda, portraying overwhelming support for the Ukraine invasion and highlighting the resilience of the Russian economy.
In conclusion, while Putin’s victory seems inevitable, the manner in which he secures it will serve as a testament to his enduring influence and control over Russian politics.
Clara Cardoso
